As F-16s arrive, Ukraine still faces steep challenges in the skies

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MYRHOROD, Ukraine — The surveillance drone appeared high above the Ukrainian air base without warning in early July. Minutes after it relayed targeting data back to a Russian base, a barrage of ballistic missiles struck the airfield, Ukrainian officials said, recounting the episode.

Russia has been saturating the skies over Ukraine with surveillance drones, exploiting gaps in air-defense systems, to launch increasingly sophisticated attacks on Ukrainian positions. Its dominance in the air along parts of the front has allowed it to bombard Ukrainian positions with hundreds of powerful guided bombs every day, helping its ground forces to make slow and costly gains.

Ukraine’s strategy was to counter Russia in the air war with the aid of long-coveted F-16 fighter jets from the West that it says it will deploy this summer.

But the assaults on Ukrainian air bases underscore Russia’s determination to limit the impact of the planes even before they enter the fight. They also highlight the challenges Ukraine faces as it prepares to deploy the sophisticated aircraft for the first time.

Ukraine is hoping the F-16s, which come with powerful electronic warfare systems and an array of other weapons, can be used in coordination with other Western weapons like Patriot air-defense systems to expand the area deemed too dangerous for Russian pilots to fly. They also hope the jets will add another layer of protection for Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure from relentless missile and drone attacks.

But a shortage of trained pilots and a limited number of jets will constrain the immediate impact, experts say.

“Russia has had so much time to fortify its defenses, especially along the front-line areas,” said Hunter Stoll, a defense analyst at RAND, a research organization. “The F-16s and their pilots will face stiff resistance from Russian air defenses, both on the ground and in the sky.”

Ukraine says it is “in the process” of moving the first F-16s into the country, about 2 1/2 years after it first pleaded for the aircraft. It has been a year since the Biden administration finally reversed policy and allowed Western allies to transfer American fighter jets to Ukraine.

“Today, we can already say clearly, we have entered the club of countries that have F-16s,” Yuri Ihnat, a representative for the Ukrainian air force, said. “This is a turning point for our nation.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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